PRO NOTES
One thing that I have learned over the years is to not take the preseason
results very seriously when it comes to the regular season. Obviously, preseason wins are not important in the NFL, as demonstrated
by the Indianapolis Colts. They have the worst preseason record in the NFL over the past three years, yet also have the best regular season record. They were terrible again this year at 1-4, but no one expects them to falter over the next 17 weeks.
There are some things that can be gleaned from the preseason that will carry over into the regular season, however, and I will share some of the notes I made from watching this year’s exhibition games. Among the teams that are not expected to be playoff bound, I was most impressed with the Buffalo Bills’ overall talent level. Buffalo had numerous injuries last year and still was able to remain competitive in most games. A solid draft and the return to health of several starters
should result in a team capable of making the playoffs this season. They were fast and deep on defense in the preseason and have some playmakers on offense as well. In addition, it seems like Trent Edwards and JP Losman have made strides at quarterback, so they should be ok if Edwards gets hurt.
Another team that showed lots of depth was the Carolina Panthers, who like the Bills, suffered through an injury-plagued 2007 season. Carolina played without a full deck at wide receiver for most of the preseason, yet still had some solid performances on offense. Included was the most dominant game of the entire preseason; their 47-3 win over Washington in week three. The running back tandem of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams will take some pressure off of quarterback Jake Delhomme and the passing game. The additions of receivers Muhsin Muhammad and DJ Hackett and rookie offensive tackle Jeff Otah will help Delhomme and Steve Smith as well.
On the other end of the spectrum, if the preseason is any indication, points are going to be hard to come by in Baltimore, St. Louis, Kansas City and Oakland. The Ravens’ quarterback situation is the worst in the league with Kyle Boller injured and Troy Smith or Joe Flacco looking like the starter. Throw in one of the worst receiving corps in the league and the retirement of tackle Jonathan Ogden and the Ravens have solidified their hold on the title of worst offense in the NFL. St. Louis is in better shape at quarterback with Marc Bulger, but the offensive line is a trouble spot and there is no speed outside.
Steven Jackson missed the entire preseason with a successful holdout, but the Rams may not get the numbers they are used to from Jackson. Kansas City was also putrid on offense this preseason, as the only success for the first-stringers came in the last week against the Rams’ backup defenders. Brodie Croyle has struggled in his time in the NFL at quarterback, but he really has just one legit wideout in Dwayne Bowe. I think the Chiefs will be better than they showed in the preseason, but not by much.
Oakland is another team that didn’t do much on offense in the preseason, but have more talent than the teams listed above on that side of the ball. Their preseason seemed to have less of a game plan than any other team as Lane Kiffin worked on different things without regard to the situation. He didn’t kick the ball one game, then passed on every down in another. In the final game, he sat all of his starters to avoid further injury. All in all, we never really saw what the Raiders are going to be like in the regular season. One thing is certain, running back Darren McFadden is the real deal and will have a huge impact. If Jamarcus Russell becomes a legit NFL quarterback, they will have a solid offense.
COLLEGE NOTES
While the college football world is buzzing about Alabama’s physical massacre of Clemson and how far superior the SEC is to all other conferences, Arkansas and Mississippi State clearly showed that all is not rosy from top to bottom. The tandem was embarrassed in games versus Louisiana Tech and Western
Illinois this past weekend and what was very evident was their lack of ability in the trenches. For Mississippi State, the rebuilt offensive line, which features four new starters, struggled mightily. Youth is being thrown into the fire early this season as highly touted sophomores, left tackle Derek Sherrod and right tackle Mark Melichar, entered the game with zero combined starts. Add fellow sophomore center Joe Brignone to the mix along with redshirt freshman left tackle Quentin Saulsberry and 80 percent of the line was starting their first game. Senior left guard Anthony Strauder is the only starting returnee and the overall youth showed up vividly as MSU managed just 91 rushing
yards on 31 carries while allowing three sacks. Even subtracting the sack yardage, Mississippi State averaged only 3.8 yards per carry against a Louisiana Tech squad that has three new starters in its defensive line. Four sacks and eight tackles for loss allowed against this caliber of defensive front seven can only indicate troubles in SEC play for the Starkville group who really need to pull things together if they have any bowl aspirations.
For Arkansas, the trials and tribulations of getting accustomed to new head coach Bobby Petrino’s system can certainly be assigned
some of the blame. However, 76 total rushing yards and four sacks allowed against FCS (I-AA) school Western Illinois is a signal that the line may be in for a difficult time adjusting even if the Leathernecks came in ranked 22nd. The Hogs are in the midst of breaking in three new sophomore starters as Petrino searches for the best unit but they do have the luxury of possessing a pair of top-flight veterans in senior center Jonathan Luigis (first team All-America last year) and senior left tackle Jose Valdez. This offensive line is filled with underclassmen on the depth chart and it saw depth chart flip flopping throughout August practices heading into the season opener. Expect Petrino to continue to tinker and keep a close watch on how this group performs this week versus UL-Monroe since significant improvements are often made from week one to week two. With Texas and Alabama awaiting Arkansas in the following two weeks, it’s imperative they get things together immediately.
Any questions about this season’s USC offensive line were answered in a resoundingly positive way last Saturday when the 2008 group steamrolled Virginia. The Trojans lost five linemen including four starters, first team All America tackle Sam Baker to the NFL (1st round Atlanta), first team All-PAC-10 right guard Chilo Rachal (2nd round San Francisco), honorable mention All-PAC-10 right tackle Drew Radovich and starting center Matt Spanos. After the Virginia game, senior starting QB Mark Sanchez said he was barely hit during the contest. Virginia recorded zero sacks, zero quarterback hurries and just one tackle for loss which explains how dominant the Trojans front line was. USC’s running backs had gaping holes to run through on a consistent basis as they picked up 218 yards on 5.3 per carry. All this was accomplished with the Cavaliers placing extreme emphasis on pressuring Sanchez. There are more talented defenses waiting ahead for USC and none bigger than that of Ohio State which comes to the LA Coliseum in two weeks, but the Trojans appear to have an offensive line that can stand up to any challenge.
South Florida absolutely destroyed Tennessee-Martin Saturday night 56-7 but they lost a key offensive ingredient in the process.
The Bulls best offensive lineman senior left tackle Ryan Schmidt left the game with a knee injury and did not return. The extent of his injury was still unknown on Sunday so be sure to check Schmidt’s status throughout the week.
The San Jose State offensive line broke in three new starters last Saturday because of injuries to its veterans. With veteran center Ronnie Castillo and returning starter Isaac Leatiota out, the middle of the line was brand new at all three spots and in all, the starting front had a total of three starts under their belt. It showed as the Spartans were stifled offensively all night. Despite having returning star running back Yonus Davis, San Jose State gained just 42 rushing yards and their quarterbacks were sacked four times.
Quick Hitters – Here are some various lines on either side of the ball that I either found very impressive or unimpressive in week one.
Nevada – Their upper class laden and veteran offensive line performed tremendously in a simple tune up against Grambling State. Sure this was cupcake city, but the ground game rolled up 426 yards on 8.0 per carry and this deep blocking contingent could be the best in the WAC.
Oregon – The Ducks may have lost starting QB Justin Roper to a concussion in this one but the way the lines played on each side of the ball, it didn’t matter. With four seniors in the rotation led by perennial All-PAC-10 honoree Max Undger, the Ducks experienced and deep unit paved the way for 256 yards rushing on 5.8 per carry and they did not allow a quarterback sack or hurry. Defensively, their front seven displayed their trademark pressure Style as they were responsible for three sacks, five hurries and five and a half tackles for loss.
Michigan – Their defensive front played magnificently and showed that there won’t be many problems in that area this season. Against a very veteran Utah offense, the Wolverines yielded 75 rushing yards on 37 carries and they also led the charge to six sacks. On the flip side however, the offensive line play was well below average and looks as if it may take some time before they’re able to flawlessly execute the new blocking schemes.
BANKROLL MANAGEMENT
Ive heard countless times that the reason that 90%+ of sports bettors lose is because of improper bankroll management. I've also heard varying theories of how much of your roll a "unit" should be. So I decided to do the math for myself and share it with all of you. Hope this helps!
I started with the simple scenario of assuming that every game I bet has the same probability of winning, no single play is stronger than another. Also, at this point we will assume there is no juice. Each game is Bet $X to win $X. If I bet X percent of my roll on each game, and continue to adjust my wager (this is a fluid model, allowing for the changing size of the bankroll with each play), after 100 bets I have multiplied my bankroll by: Y = ((1+X)^A)*((1-X)^B)
where X is the percentage of my bankroll bet on each play,
A is my number of wins, B is my number of losses, and A+B=100.
Now assume that I know I will hit 56 of these 100 bets. What percentage of my bankroll should I bet on each game? Some people might argue that I should bet a large portion of the roll, perhaps 50%, so each bet is +EV. Others might say that minimizing risk of ruin is important, so only bet about 1% (remember, however, that this is a fluid model, which essentially eliminates ROR). But both of these notions are actually costing the bettor value. When we model the equation using differential calculus (or a handy graphing calculator
Now it's time to look at a more practical application, which includes juice and a varying number of games selected. For the math in this part, I always assumed juice was 10% (since I bet with a local this all I can get). Our new growth formula becomes:
Y = ((1+X)^u)*((1-(1.1X))^w)
where X is, again, the % of your roll being bet each game. u is the percentage of games you win, w is the percentage of games you lose, Y is the amount your initial stake will be multiplied by, and u+w = 100.
Using the same fundamentals as earlier, I calculated the following optimal bet chart based on the percentage of wagers you anticipate hitting:
% of wagers hit % of bankroll wagered per play Y value after 100 bets
53 1.182 1.0077
54 3.09 1.0540
55 5.00 1.1477
56 6.909 1.3013
57 8.82 1.5366
58 10.73 1.8899
59 12.64 2.4220
60 14.55 3.2347
Notice that with each % of wagers hit, the % of your bankroll wagered goes up linearly but the impact it has on your initial stake rises exponentially!
Here is a final chart, which I found eye-opening. This is the results of using an optimal betting system for 1,000 bets.
% of wagers hit % of bankroll wagered per play Y value after 1000 bets
56 6.909 13.9272
58 10.73 581.4
60 14.55 125,438.37
To explain, this means that if you were to hit 560 of your next 1000 wagers, and for each wager you bet 6.909% of your bankroll, you would multiply your stake by nearly 14! And if you were able to have no problems with credit limits, and somehow hit 600 of your next 1000 wagers, by betting 14.55% of your role per play you could turn $100 into over $12 million!!
Things I noticed by doing this analysis:
1) Juice cuts a 56% bettor's profits by nearly 70%.
2) It is VERY important to keep track of your bets and know exactly what percentage you hit. This can affect the exponential growth of your starting stake.
3) If you like certain plays more than others, adjust your bet for those particular plays according to the chance that they will hit.
4) It is very important to keep a fluid model of growth!
5) There are no fancy betting systems that can overcome being a substandard bettor. If you can't hit 52.4% of your games, you can not win in the long run.
