10/27
Ottawa. 4 star. I hate when the modle does this. On paper buffalo should kill Ottawa however the model says otherwise. Take a small amount and take the +155
7 star:
I'm taking the points with INDIANAPOLIS. As the only undefeated team in the league, the Titans have certainly gotten off to an impressive start. However, a closer look at their schedule shows that it included (0-7) Cincy and (1-6 KC) and that none of their six opponents are currently better than 4-3. In fact, the (4-3) Ravens are the only team with a winning record and they've got a first-year QB. Naturally, none of those opponents would be in the playoffs today. Granted, the same could be said of the Colts, as they come in at just 3-3. However, the Colts' schedule has been signifcantly tougher (Green Bay and Chicago instead of KC and Cincy) and we all know that the Colts aren't your "ordinary" 3-3 team. This is a Colts team that won the Super Bowl only two years ago and which has dominated the AFC South for years. Looking at the recent-head to head history and we find that the last four meetings in this series have been decided by a combined 12 points (avg of 3 ppg) and that the Colts have won eight of the last 10 meetings overall. Those backing the favorite tonight will likely argue that Colts have been a bit soft against the run at times and that the Titans are a team which likes to pound the ball on the ground. That type of team doesn't always give the Colts the type of trouble one might think though. Two games ago, the Colts played Baltimore. That's noteworthy as the Ravens and the Titans have a lot of similarities. For starters, both those defenses rank in the top 3 in the AFC in points allowed. Additionally, both the Ravens and Titans run the ball more than any team in the league. The Ravens run the ball 37.2 times per game while the Titans run the ball 34.2 times per game. Therefore, quite a few people thought the Ravens might give the Colts some trouble. What happened? Indianapolis dismantled them by a score of 31-3! (Note that the Titans beat the same Ravens team by only three points the previous week) Like the Ravens, the Titans aren't the type of team that is built to come from behind. While the Titans would love to keep their perfect record in tact and make a statement with a big win, this is a much more important game for the Colts. Indianapolis coach Dungy was quoted as saying: "We're going to have to play a good game to win. That's our focus right now. It's not where we are in the standings or any of that. I think we'll know to win the division or to have a chance to win the division we're going to have to win this game, but it's not really about that. We're at Week 7 for us and we have to play an outstanding game." The Colts are 2-0 SU/ATS their last two Monday night games and 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS their last 14. They've won here four of the past five years and the lone loss was by a field goal. We saw that records don't always mean that much when it comes to divisional play in late October yesterday. There were only two divisional games (Buffalo/Miami and Seattle/SF) and in both cases the team with the worse record ending up winning. Don't count out Manning and co. quite yet!
10/16
4 star
I'm playing on Florida State and NC State to finish UNDER the total. The Wolfpack have played the Seminoles tough in recent seasons, which has been largely due to the fact that they've played solid defense. Looking at the last four series meetings and we find that they produced combined scores of 37, 44, 35 and 27 points. The last three meetings here in Raleigh have been particularly low-scoring, averaging a mere 31.67 points per game. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring contest this evening. It's true that the Wolfpack defense hasn't been particularly strong this season and that they have given up a lot of points their last two games. However, they are coming off a bye and that time off allowed several key defensive players time to recover from nagging injuries. You may recall what happened after last year's bye, which also came after NC State had played six games. The Wolfpack entered last year's bye week having lost three straight games, while allowing an average of 33 points per game in the losses. After the bye, the Wolfpack faced an East Carolina squad which had gone 3-0 its previous three games, while scoring 52, 37 and 45 points. Most expected the Pirates to put up big numbers once again. However, the Wolfpack D delivered one of its best games of the season and allowed just 20 points. Including that result, the Wolfpack have seen the UNDER go 7-1 the last eight times they were coming off back to back SU losses and 14-4 their last 18 games (with a total) in that situation. It's also worth noting that the Wolfpack were shutout (at South Carolina) in their only previous Thursday game this season and that they e This year's bye came has allowed the Wolfpack enough time that they should get defensive stars Michael Cash and linebacker Nate Irving back in the lineup. Cash, who coach Tom O'Brien said was the team's best defensive lineman before having knee surgery, is reportedly back at full strength after missing three games. Irving, currently listed as probable, made 34 tackles in three and a half games and remains the Wolfpack's leader with six tackles for loss and three interceptions. The Seminoles, who are also coming off a bye, also allowed a lot of points (39) in their last game. However, a closer look at that game shows that Florida State had only allowed three points in the first half and that the defense wasn't fully responsible for many of the points allowed in the second half. That's because two botched snaps on Florida State punts led to Miami points while the Hurricanes also ran back an interception for a touchdown. Prior to that game, the Seminoles had been allowing a mere 10 points per game. Note that the Noles have seen the UNDER go 9-2 their last 11 games (with a total) in which they were favored in the 10.5 to 14 point range. Florida State is still only allowing a mere 230 total yards per game, which ranks second (behind TCU) in the entire country. Look for both defenses to rise to the occasion as these teams play yet another relatively low-scoring game against each other.
6 Star
Stanford NOTRE DAME
2:30
Pick Stanford
Stanford is an improving team that is now better than average on both sides of the ball and is playing with more confidence. Quarterback Tavita Pritchard had his best game ever last week (222 yards on 24 pass plays) and he is now just 0.2 yards per pass play worse than an average quarterback (5.7 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback). Stanford has an edge in this game regardless of who has the ball and both teams are good in special teams. Notre Dame’s 3 wins haven’t actually been very impressive, as they barely out-played a bad San Diego State team, were out-gained 5.0 yppl to 5.7 yppl by a mediocre Michigan team and only out-gained Purdue last week 6.45 yppl to 6.42 yppl. Stanford should be favored in this game and the Cardinal apply to a very strong 44-11-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator.
Public:
Notre Dame 85.41%
Stanford 14.59%
